Events and Market Behaviour
The price does not move because a chart says so. It moves because of five separate forces, layered on top of each other, resolved every three seconds.
What Moves the Price
Player orders. Every buy and sell hits the same constant-product pool. Bigger orders move the price further and pay more slippage for it.
Rival traders. Six simulated traders with persistent positions and distinct temperaments — one chases green candles, one buys blood, one never sells. They trade from their own book, and their flow is genuinely what moves the market between player orders. Their positions are visible to you.
Background volatility. Constant small movement, with occasional clusters where volatility briefly multiplies.
Hidden regimes and phases. The market rotates through internal states that bias direction and volatility. These are never exposed — you experience them only as price action.
Pump and dump events. Scheduled shocks, described below.
A buy creates upward pressure. It does not guarantee a green candle, because the other four forces are acting at the same time and any of them may be stronger at that moment.
The Event Window
The trading day is divided into five-minute event windows. Exactly one event fires in each window, at a random moment between 15 seconds and 4 minutes 45 seconds in.
That is roughly 240 events across a 20-hour round.
The terminal shows you how far through the current window the market is, and whether it has already fired. It never shows you which event is coming, its direction, or its exact timing.
Why that matters
Because exactly one event lands per window, the odds shift as the clock runs down:
| Time into window | Chance it fires in the next 10 seconds |
|---|---|
| 15s | 3.7% |
| 105s | 5.6% |
| 210s | 13.3% |
| 265s | 50% |
| 275s | 100% |
A window that is nearly over with nothing fired means something is about to happen — but not which way. That is the decision the hype meter exists to create: hold through it, or flatten first.
The Event Deck
Twelve events. Seven pumps, five dumps.
| Event | Direction | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| WHALE.exe ACTIVATED | +28% | standard |
| SIX ROCKETS, ZERO RESEARCH | +22% | standard |
| LISTING CONFIRMED BY TRUST ME BRO | +20% | standard |
| MYSTERY WALLET IS COOKING | +17% | standard |
| GM = GENERATIONAL MONEY | +15% | standard |
| ROADMAP DELETED, MEME UPLOADED | +10% | standard |
| UTILITY NOT FOUND — 404 | −18% | standard |
| THE INTERN FOUND SELL ALL | −21% | standard |
| LP NEEDS RENT MONEY | −26% | standard |
| TELEGRAM HAS LEFT THE CHAT | −30% | standard |
| DON TRUMP SAID {TOKEN} WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN | +120% | mega |
| DEV PULLED THE BATHTUB PLUG | −70% | mega |
Each event is drawn by weight. Standard events are common. The two mega events carry a combined weight of roughly 0.5% — about one in two hundred draws.
Standard event impact is capped at ±22% at the moment it lands, so the deck cannot be reweighted into something the pool cannot absorb.
The Market Moves First
The price moves before the headline appears.
You see the candle react, and only then does the event card tell you the ridiculous reason. You are never given a warning you could trade on — you are given an explanation for something already happening.
An event’s effect is not a single instantaneous jump either. It lands with an immediate move, then continues through an aftermath window lasting tens of seconds, during which the market is still absorbing it.
Mega-Rug
The mega dump targets a severe drop and is the most dangerous thing in the game.
- The protected reserve floor keeps the pool mathematically recoverable — the price is never driven to zero
- Recovery before the round ends is not guaranteed
- A position that falls to roughly 10% of its remaining cost basis may be liquidated, and liquidated tokens cannot recover later
- An account whose total equity falls to 25% of its starting bankroll is out for the round
After a mega dump, the market enters a recovery window of about 20 minutes during which pump events become more likely and dump events less likely. The market is not left permanently broken — but nothing guarantees your position survives to see it.
Market Phases
Every 18 to 40 minutes the market may enter a named phase lasting several minutes:
| Phase | Effect |
|---|---|
| PUMPING TIME | Sustained upward drift, volatility ×1.45 |
| DUMPSTER HOURS | Sustained downward drift, volatility ×1.45 |
| CHAOS MODE | No direction, volatility ×2.5 |
| WHALE SEASON | Far more frequent large rival orders |
Phases are more likely to lean against an extreme: a market already far above its opening price is more likely to enter a downward phase, and vice versa. This is what stops a round running away in one direction all day.
What You Are Never Told
- Which event is scheduled next
- Its direction or size
- Its exact firing time
- The current hidden regime
- The next phase
These stay server-side. If they were published the game would be solved in a day, and every player would trade the schedule instead of the market.
Everything is revealed afterwards. The post-round replay shows every event, when it fired, the price before and after, and the actual change it produced — alongside the full hash-chained audit of the round.